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Source: Lloyd's List
THE shipping industry could be facing an overcapacity of up to 10,000 vessels according to estimates from classification society, Det Norske Veritas.
The Norwegian class society has seen 43 of its own vessels cancelled over the year, which it said represents 10% of the global number of vessels cut from the orderbook to date.
It also estimates that up to 1,000 are lying idle. Tracking data from Singapore, Hong Kong and other international anchorages points to them being full. Singapore is said to be turning vessels away as its various resting locations are full to capacity.
In a startling assessment of the current situation, DNV president and chief executive officer Henrik Madsen said that the number of cancellations was likely to rocket over the coming months.
He compared the present climate to that of the 1970s, when Japan was forced to reduce a large amount of shipbuilding capacity. “Something will have to happen on the supply side but here it is not one nation now, but all nations that somehow have to agree to take out capacity which may be difficult,” he said.
He said that by 2013, if the global economy remained stagnant, there could be over 3,000 ships scrapped, 1,444 cancelled and over 6,000 vessels either in lay-up, slow steaming or idling.
If the economy were to decline by 3%, there was a risk that this figure could increase to 12,000 vessels. Even with a more positive scenario, where the economy picks up to 3% growth after 2010, there could still be an overcapacity of 4,000 ships.
“To believe it will be over in one or two years is a bit naive,” Mr Madsen said.
The DNV data does not separate ship type, but makes the assumption that the global fleet was operating at almost full capacity when it was hit by the economic downturn and that its growth matched economic growth.
Within the scenario DNV has created, it assumes that scrapping will be at about 600 vessels a year for the next four years and up to 2,400 newbuilding contracts could be delayed during the same period.
This has led to speculation that some yards may be converted to become environmentally approved dismantling facilities to meet expected interest from owners needing to dispose of tonnage under the International Maritime Organization’s ship recycling convention, which is being finalised.
With the number of vessels either idling or in lay-up increasing as much as six-fold, the question of where to mothball them must be addressed.
While the depth of the current economic crisis has shocked most industry experts, most shipowners laying up vessels are opting for the temporary lay-up and adopting a wait-and-see approach.
However, if the crisis deepens, this could trigger more permanent lay-up and a further challenge in the future when tonnage needs to be reactivated.
THE shipping industry could be facing an overcapacity of up to 10,000 vessels according to estimates from classification society, Det Norske Veritas.
The Norwegian class society has seen 43 of its own vessels cancelled over the year, which it said represents 10% of the global number of vessels cut from the orderbook to date.
It also estimates that up to 1,000 are lying idle. Tracking data from Singapore, Hong Kong and other international anchorages points to them being full. Singapore is said to be turning vessels away as its various resting locations are full to capacity.
In a startling assessment of the current situation, DNV president and chief executive officer Henrik Madsen said that the number of cancellations was likely to rocket over the coming months.
He compared the present climate to that of the 1970s, when Japan was forced to reduce a large amount of shipbuilding capacity. “Something will have to happen on the supply side but here it is not one nation now, but all nations that somehow have to agree to take out capacity which may be difficult,” he said.
He said that by 2013, if the global economy remained stagnant, there could be over 3,000 ships scrapped, 1,444 cancelled and over 6,000 vessels either in lay-up, slow steaming or idling.
If the economy were to decline by 3%, there was a risk that this figure could increase to 12,000 vessels. Even with a more positive scenario, where the economy picks up to 3% growth after 2010, there could still be an overcapacity of 4,000 ships.
“To believe it will be over in one or two years is a bit naive,” Mr Madsen said.
The DNV data does not separate ship type, but makes the assumption that the global fleet was operating at almost full capacity when it was hit by the economic downturn and that its growth matched economic growth.
Within the scenario DNV has created, it assumes that scrapping will be at about 600 vessels a year for the next four years and up to 2,400 newbuilding contracts could be delayed during the same period.
This has led to speculation that some yards may be converted to become environmentally approved dismantling facilities to meet expected interest from owners needing to dispose of tonnage under the International Maritime Organization’s ship recycling convention, which is being finalised.
With the number of vessels either idling or in lay-up increasing as much as six-fold, the question of where to mothball them must be addressed.
While the depth of the current economic crisis has shocked most industry experts, most shipowners laying up vessels are opting for the temporary lay-up and adopting a wait-and-see approach.
However, if the crisis deepens, this could trigger more permanent lay-up and a further challenge in the future when tonnage needs to be reactivated.
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