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Source: Bloomberg
By Todd Zeranski
July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Teekay Corp., Frontline Ltd. and Overseas Shipholding Group Inc., owners of some of the largest fleets of vessels that carry crude and petroleum products, will post second-quarter losses because a global economic slowdown has cut demand for oil shipments, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said.
“We continue to believe that the weak global demand environment will pressure tanker rates through at least the summer,” Jonathan Chappell, a New York-based analyst at JPMorgan, said in a note to investors today.
Chappell forecast a second-quarter loss for Teekay of 76 cents a share, versus an earlier estimate of a 59-cent loss. He downgraded Teekay, the world’s biggest tanker owner, to “underweight” from “neutral.”
He forecast smaller losses for other tanker owners. Overseas Shipholding’s estimated loss now is 72 cents a share, compared with 82 cents earlier. Frontline may lose 8 cents rather than 16 cents.
Chappell estimated global oil demand would fall 2.1 million barrels a day this year, and the size of the fleet would grow 9.9 percent, exacerbating “the dreaded ‘too-many-ships-for-too- few-cargoes’” market environment.
Oil inventories for developed countries stand at about 62 days of forward cover, 10 days higher than Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries targets, which may inhibit the group from increasing production, Chappell said.
No Improvement
General Maritime Corp., the second-largest U.S.-based oil- tanker owner, doesn’t see shipping rates improving until 2010 because oil inventories are high and soon-to-be-banned single- hull ships may still be able to operate for 18 months, Chief Financial Officer Jeff Pribor said in a July 17 interview.
Chappell estimated General Maritime earned 15 cents a share in the second quarter, down from an earlier estimate of 22 cents.
The third quarter “will likely be another weak quarter,” Chappell said, as less demand for oil coincides with growth in the global tanker fleet.
“We do not expect favorable rate or earnings-per-share momentum to be a positive catalyst for tanker stocks until late fall, at the earliest,” he said.
Chappell didn’t change his ratings of “underweight” for Frontline, “neutral” for Overseas Shipholding, or “overweight” for General Maritime.
Teekay fell 78 cents, or 4.1 percent, to $18.23 in New York Stock Exchange trading. Overseas Shipholding fell 86 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $33.06. Frontline fell 74 cents, or 3.3 percent, to $21.44. General Maritime declined 40 cents, or 4.6 percent, to $8.30.
July 21 (Bloomberg) -- Teekay Corp., Frontline Ltd. and Overseas Shipholding Group Inc., owners of some of the largest fleets of vessels that carry crude and petroleum products, will post second-quarter losses because a global economic slowdown has cut demand for oil shipments, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said.
“We continue to believe that the weak global demand environment will pressure tanker rates through at least the summer,” Jonathan Chappell, a New York-based analyst at JPMorgan, said in a note to investors today.
Chappell forecast a second-quarter loss for Teekay of 76 cents a share, versus an earlier estimate of a 59-cent loss. He downgraded Teekay, the world’s biggest tanker owner, to “underweight” from “neutral.”
He forecast smaller losses for other tanker owners. Overseas Shipholding’s estimated loss now is 72 cents a share, compared with 82 cents earlier. Frontline may lose 8 cents rather than 16 cents.
Chappell estimated global oil demand would fall 2.1 million barrels a day this year, and the size of the fleet would grow 9.9 percent, exacerbating “the dreaded ‘too-many-ships-for-too- few-cargoes’” market environment.
Oil inventories for developed countries stand at about 62 days of forward cover, 10 days higher than Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries targets, which may inhibit the group from increasing production, Chappell said.
No Improvement
General Maritime Corp., the second-largest U.S.-based oil- tanker owner, doesn’t see shipping rates improving until 2010 because oil inventories are high and soon-to-be-banned single- hull ships may still be able to operate for 18 months, Chief Financial Officer Jeff Pribor said in a July 17 interview.
Chappell estimated General Maritime earned 15 cents a share in the second quarter, down from an earlier estimate of 22 cents.
The third quarter “will likely be another weak quarter,” Chappell said, as less demand for oil coincides with growth in the global tanker fleet.
“We do not expect favorable rate or earnings-per-share momentum to be a positive catalyst for tanker stocks until late fall, at the earliest,” he said.
Chappell didn’t change his ratings of “underweight” for Frontline, “neutral” for Overseas Shipholding, or “overweight” for General Maritime.
Teekay fell 78 cents, or 4.1 percent, to $18.23 in New York Stock Exchange trading. Overseas Shipholding fell 86 cents, or 2.5 percent, to $33.06. Frontline fell 74 cents, or 3.3 percent, to $21.44. General Maritime declined 40 cents, or 4.6 percent, to $8.30.
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